Learn about the El Niña Is Coming 2025 and its potential effects on India and the world. Discover the difference between LA Niña and El Niño, how they are linked to the Pacific Ocean and trade winds, as explained.
15 December 1999 was a normal day in the Vargas state situated in the hills of Venezuela. Then the people living there felt that the ground beneath their feet was shaking. Now people initially thought it to be a simple earthquake, and tried to go out in the open but they had no idea what was going on beneath their feet.
After some time, the entire ground there started shaking very fast, and within no time the entire hill started crumbling, and the next moment thousands of houses on the Vargas state, and the people living in them were buried under a sheet of soil and mud several meters thick.
This was The Vargas Tragedy. Apart from this, in the year 1998, America buried about 30,000 people alive. Apart from this, a big storm named Mitch came which killed about 11,000 people. And in the year 2010 to 2011, a huge drought was seen in Africa due to which the crops were destroyed. And about 12 million people had to suffer from hunger. In the historical world, people considered disasters like landslides, floods, droughts as God’s wrath.
But there is only one reason behind those incidents, and that too a scientific one. Many scientists have devoted their entire lives to solve such a puzzle. So that the people of the future can predict these upcoming disasters, and shockingly the prediction says that we are standing on the threshold of another such disaster.
The secret behind all these disasters and devastations that have occurred at different times on the Pacific Ocean is hidden in this biggest ocean of the Earth. Before knowing about it, we will have to go a little back in history.
The Tragedy Of 1895
This is India where there was devastation all around. People were starving, losing their lives because of continuous drought for many years. The British government sitting in India was not doing anything to save the people. But while India was going through a severe famine, a person sitting in London many kilometers away from India was watching this disaster in India. This was Sir Gilbert Walker whose heart was very sad for the people of India.
And he had observed historically that such disasters keep occurring in India again and again. Being a mathematician by profession, Walker saw a pattern in all these disasters. If he could solve this, he could have saved millions of Indians and perhaps millions of people who lose their lives in disasters in different countries of the world. And with this dream, he came to India in the year 1903.
Where the British government was so impressed with his work that he was made the Director General of India’s Meteorology Department just a year later in 1904. After this, Walker collected data for about 20 years on disasters occurring in India and different countries of the world such as drought, flood, landslide, storm, and other changes in weather like air pressure, temperature, humidity.
When he saw some patterns, he observed that when the continents present in the Pacific Ocean towards the east Like, there is heavy rainfall in South America and North America. In the West of the Pacific Ocean, i.e. In Asia and the continents around it like Australia, there is drought and severe heat is seen, whereas when there is heavy rainfall in these countries.
Then in the countries of North America and South America, situations like severe heat, forest fires and drought are seen. This mirror image pattern surprised Gilbert a lot. The study which he published and this pattern was named South Ocean, this pattern was very strange and mysterious. Its effect on the geography of the earth could be clearly seen.
But what is the reason behind this, this mystery was still to be solved. Walker was about to solve this mystery when he died in 1958. After which scientists from all over the world tried to solve this mystery and know the scientific reason behind these devastating incidents.
But success in this was achieved by Sweden’s Meteorologist JACOB BJERKNES. When he studied the collective data by Gilbert Walker, he finally reached the mystery. Walker had spent his whole life searching for it. After which JACOB found only one reason behind all these disasters. A reason which is related to the Pacific Ocean. So according to the study of JACOB BJERKNES in the year 1960, the constantly changing pressure temperature and wind patterns in the Pacific Ocean were responsible for all these disasters occurring from time to time in the world.
Which affects the atmosphere of the entire earth. Which JACOB BJERKNES named WALK CIRCULATION. Now JACOB BJERKNES had discovered Rebalancer from his study here. The dictionary on which the economy of the whole world is still dependent. Because due to this discovery, now the disasters causing destruction can be controlled.
By predicting this, the governments of the country prepare to save people’s lives well in advance. He starts but what was Jacob Harkness’ discovery? Well Jacob noticed here that due to excessive rains or less monsoon in different countries, drought and heat conditions, the most important role in all these weather disasters is trade winds.
But what are these trade winds? So when our earth rotates on its axis, then due to its rotation and the heat coming from the sun, in the atmosphere of the earth, look, when our earth rotates on its axis, the gases present there rise up due to the heat. And then moving upwards towards space, it cools down and comes back down to the atmosphere. After which the rotation of the earth and many other factors together give it a direction. Due to which there are different types of winds in different parts of the earth.
Wind patterns are formed. But if we specifically look at the wind patterns formed in the Pacific Ocean, then normally the winds flow from East to West. These have been named Historical Trade Winds. Because in ancient times, ships used to navigate the Pacific Ocean using these winds. Apart from this, even today, airplanes passing through the Pacific Ocean maintain their speed through these trade winds.
Because by flying in the direction of these strong winds, planes are able to save their fuel and cover more distance with less energy. This benefits the airlines overall. Along with this, these trade winds carry water clouds formed from the largest ocean on Earth to different continents over time.
Due to which monsoon comes to India and many other countries of the world. Crops get water. And people feel cool in summer. But the direction of these trade winds changes after a fixed time. Which is responsible for these destructions occurring on the earth at different times.
Let us now understand how this happens? So usually these trade winds of the Pacific Ocean change in three different ways. Normal Trade Winds, EL NINO and LA NINA. Now this entire phenomenon has been combined and named ENSO i.e. EL NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION Southern Ocean.
Now out of these three situations, the first one that occurs is the Normal East To West blowing Trade Winds which reaches towards its West i.e. Asia from the Pacific Ocean carrying heavy moisture and rainy clouds with them. Due to which we get to see rain i.e. monsoon in these parts. While during this time, most of the parts of the continent on the other side of the Pacific Ocean i.e. in the East struggle with heat and drought.
Now these Trade Winds not only cool the countries situated in the West of the Pacific Ocean but they also cool the sea, while due to this process. The sea near Peru country on the other side of the Pacific Ocean starts getting warm. Due to which a process starts here which is called upwelling, in which process cold water of the sea starts coming upwards from the depths to replace the warm. Sea water and brings with it nutrients like marine snow Phyto plant present in the depths of the sea.
Which are liked by fishes and other marine animals. Due to which a lot of marine life is seen on the coasts of Peru during this time and the fishermen here catch fish on a large scale and also export it to the nearby countries, on which a major part of Peru’s economy is based, but this situation is exactly the opposite.
What is El NINO ?
See the situation of EL NINO after a year, the trade winds suddenly change their path. In which the winds rising from the Pacific Ocean now flow from West to East instead of East. That is, from Asia to South America. Due to which, conditions like heat, lack of rain and sometimes drought are seen in Asia. Whereas, conditions like rain, cold and floods are seen in North America and South America. In this way, this effect of EL NINO causes many big disasters from time to time.
While this causes flood like conditions in the rest of the world, some parts are so drought-stricken that the agriculture and overall economy of that place are badly affected. But in terms of economy, El Niño has the most adverse effect on Peru because during normal trade winds, due to the high ocean surface temperature on the shores of Peru, the upwelling that happens causes the fishermen here to catch fish in large quantities.
That upwelling stops due to the reversal of trade winds due to El Niño and the cooling of the sea near Peru. Due to which the fishermen here suffer a lot. And overall it has a very bad effect on the economy of the countries that depend a lot on upwelling. Now this effect of EL NINO occurs in a time period of every two to seven years. In which this small change in the direction of trade winds can prove to be very dangerous.
You can guess this from this. The real reason behind the incidents of drought that took the lives of millions of people in the year 1895 was the EL NINO effect. In 1982, due to the EL NINO effect, there was such heavy rainfall in America that many diseases spread there. Due to which about 2000 people died.
People lost their lives but shockingly even the EL NINO which causes so much destruction fades in front of the last and third wind pattern of Niño Soudan Ocean. Which is La Niña,
What is LA NINA ?
Which talked about the devastation that would come to Vargas state situated in the hills of Venezuela in the year 1999. The reason behind the flood and landslide in which about 30,000 people died was La Nina. Apart from this, during the year 2010, some of the biggest floods in the history of Pakistan occurred. Which took the lives of about 2000 people, while due to La Nina, between the years 2011 to 2017, there was a huge flood.
There was also a severe drought in many parts of America. So look, in the La Nina event, these trade winds blowing in the Pacific Ocean flow from East to West just like in normal conditions. But Lani Na becomes much more powerful than the normal trade winds. And it carries a large amount of ring clouds and moisture towards the west of the Pacific Ocean, which causes this entire ocean to melt.
In the region, we get to see situations like heavy rain and floods. This causes great damage to crops, people’s lives and the economy of the countries. For example, in the year 2010 to 2011, due to La Nina, heavy floods were seen in many parts of Australia. In which about 35 people of Australia lost their lives. And there was a loss of 10 billion Australian dollars. Now if we come to India, during the year 1998.
Due to the LA NINA effect, heavy rains caused floods in many states of India. In which about 2500 people lost their lives. The houses of millions of people were submerged in water, and India’s economy suffered a huge loss. Apart from this, if we look at some recent examples, then in the year 2010 to 2011 also, India had to face heavy monsoon due to the EL NINO effect. In which a large amount of crops were destroyed as well as many people died.
Flood situations arose in Indian states. Especially in Assam, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, due to which about 200 people lost their lives. Now you must be able to feel the fear that it brings with it. But unfortunately this is a part of a cycle. In which La Nina events repeat every three to five years. And friends, this fear is spreading again all over the world, because.
The World Meteorology Organization has recently issued a warning for the Indian subcontinent, saying that there are 70% chances that the effect of La Nina will reach India by the end of 2024, due to which there is a danger of heavy rains and floods in many parts of India. And the Indian government will also be taking the right steps to save India from its devastation. Because historically, we had no way to predict these devastating weather events.
And it was really difficult to deal with these sudden disasters. But now, with the discoveries of Sir Gilbert Walker and Jacob Zarkon, we are able to predict them quite accurately. But now it is our responsibility to use these predictions properly and prepare to avoid the coming disaster.
Is India prepared for future heavy rains and floods due to LA NINA? Has India learned anything from past disasters? And have you ever read about EL NINO and LA NINA before? I hope you have learned a lot of new things from this article and you must have got some valuable information through this article. Read More
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